A century of change?

To understand the extent of past and potential future changes in the planning and development sector, Planning and Development InSite spoke to two members of Carter Jonas’s P&D team in Leeds: John Webster, whose career began over 40 years ago, and Sally Simmonite, an apprentice with approximately forty years of career ahead of her.  

The pendulum of change

The Greek philosopher Heraclitus has been attributed as recognising that the only constant in life is change. But while there has undoubtedly been considerable change during John’s career and no doubt considerably more to come during Sally’s, our conversation also identified the strong and constant presence of the ‘pendulum effect’ of change. To put it bluntly, short term change (invariably politically driven) which runs alongside long-term change, tends to swing from one direction to the other, often returning to its original position.  

And so, accepting that much has changed in the areas of sustainability, proptech, working practices and much more, our discussion focussed on the impact of the pendulum effect in the property world. 

 

Routes into property

The first instance identified was in John and Sally both choosing a vocational route into the development world. In 1979, John opted for a degree in land management at Leicester Polytechnic, having briefly worked for NatWest Bank. With unemployment at around 10% and skyrocketing interest rates at 14% causing economic uncertainty, John was determined to choose a degree with a job at the end of it. And sure enough, his degree led to a position as commercial general practice surveyor with the Newcastle firm Lamb and Edge in 1983. 

The number of people choosing to go to university increased significantly between the start of John and Sally’s careers. Approximately 15% of young British adults went on to higher education in the 1980s compared to 50% today.  

But for Sally’s generation, the pressure to choose the vocational route has returned. As Sally explains, “My generation has been lucky with the jobs market, but unlucky with the increased costs of financing a degree. I visited university open days with a view to doing a full-time degree but I decided to choose the apprenticeship route instead, partly to avoid debt.” In 2022 she began a surveying apprenticeship with Carter Jonas which will culminate, after five years, in degree in Real Estate Management awarded by the University College of Estate Management. Sally adds, “An apprenticeship is an excellent way to learn hands on in your role and from colleagues at the same time as studying and as apprentices, we get economic, social and career upsides. Also, apprenticeships have become more recognised by employers as an effective way to recruit and train future talent. This has become a big talking point in the industry as apprenticeships become popular. Lots of people older than me say they wish it was an option they could’ve explored when they left school as they see all the benefits to doing it this way.” 

 

The rental market  

It is primarily change driven by political factors which is more prone to the pendulum effect. The private rented sector is one of many examples. John recalls the ‘fair rents’ of the 1970s: “Landlords would be limited in the rent charged which often wasn’t anything like enough to cover costs – especially when a roof needed replacing. While the Labour government’s sentiment was to make renting more affordable it had the detrimental impact of lessening development of homes for rent, and thereby supply.” 

Once again, the future of rent controls is on the horizon: Sadiq Khan is keen to introduce rent caps in London; the SNP government has already done so in Scotland. The future of the private rented sector is currently in considerable doubt after the Renters (Reform) Bill fell victim to the timing of the general election. Some on the left are keen to reintroduce rent controls in England, making the development sector concerned about a return to the issues that drove down standards in the 1970s. Even the uncertainty created by the potential reforms will drive down potential supply. 

 

Regionalism 

Another politically-driven change which may well come full circle is that of regionalism. The pendulum is swinging particularly fast in this regard. “We had Regional Assemblies and RSSs in the early 2000s, then a complete change of direction in favour of Localism under David Cameron’s government”, says John. “But a decade later, politicians saw the problems that localism had caused and we’re now seeing a gradual move towards regionalism. Here in the north, we have had a powerful mayoral authority in Manchester since 2011, a more recently installed mayor and Combined Authority in West Yorkshire, and since May this year, a mayor and unitary authority in York. Initiatives such as Places for Everyone in Manchester have proved very successful in creating opportunities for housing and jobs.  It’s a huge benefit to have a single development plan for as many as ten local authorities and to spread housing delivery and Green Belt release across those areas. It reduces NIMBYism and the ludicrous situation of councillors voting against planning applications on sites that they have just allocated in their own Local Plan!” 

 

Local authority funded housing

In another potential reversal of the status quo, local authority housebuilding programmes – which provided 47% of all new homes in the pre-Thatcher era – could potentially be on the increase as both the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act and Labour housing policy look to encourage local authorities to fund affordable housing by using CPO to purchase land. 

 

Industrial land and ports

There is also an interesting, perhaps less obvious ‘swing’ as far as industrial is concerned. John recalls valuing ports and dockyards in Teesside early in his career: “The building was a quarter of a mile long, with travelling gantry and huge pieces of steel”. He recalls how his client, a former Japanese Prisoner of War was appalled at the closure of this dockland facility and the opening of a new Nissan plant being constructed in nearby Washington. 

Today, the pendulum has swung against the car plants, which are now closing like the mines and shipyards before them as the Far Eastern car companies return to the cheaper working conditions in Asia. At the same time, disused ports and docklands are seeing a return to prosperity by transitioning into Investment Zones in which to host modern technologies. Furthermore, as food insecurity and globalisation of trade takes hold, John predicts a resurgence in the ports’ original uses: another swing of the pendulum as 1980s closures are reversed.  

Industrial land generally, as John points out, has once again surged in value in relation to the retail sector, this time due to the rise in internet shopping: “Earlier in my career, retail was the darling of the commercial sectors. But that’s all changed: the ‘dirty, horrible’ shed is being replaced with ultra high-tech Amazon warehouses of up to 60 acres. Spread across several floors and in prime locations for the transport network, sheds represent an excellent return on investment. The old ‘norms’ have been reversed: average industrial yields in the mid 1980s were at around 10% and prime retail at around 5% but this has been reversed, with prime industrial now around 5% and retail at 10%.” 

Units of measurement

Measurement by square foot: another swing of the pendulum.  “At Poly in the 1980s we embraced modernity, and everything was in square metres,” says John. Yet measurements are more commonly in Imperial than metric today: Sally confirms that metres feature little in her work.  

Conclusion  

So, the long view of planning and development over almost a century: while change is clearly manifest, the impact of the pendulum effect too, is considerable. Key aspects of planning and development, from strategic planning to units of measurement, are susceptive to considerable change. At the same time, recent changes which appear embedded in the system such as the extent to which the sector is required to meet Net Zero or the spectre of development land tax are far from certain to continue on their current path.  

John chose to work in development because ‘no two days are the same and the people you meet and properties you see provide endless variety’.  This is likely to remain true. But to gauge to what extent current changes are reversed and revert to their original position, we would need to speak to Sally again in another forty years.